The pessimist case is held by respected economists who question whether the revenue raisers will successfully offset the spending increases without crowding out private investment.
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The Crowding Out Concern
At current federal debt levels, every additional dollar of deficit spending competes with private investment for a limited pool of savings. If the bill's spending provisions outpace its revenue raisers, the result could be higher long-term interest rates.
Core Takeaway
Interest rate sensitivity is the key variable. If 10-year Treasury yields rise by more than 50 basis points, the housing market stimulus from the first-time buyer credit could be partially eroded by higher mortgage rates.