Debt and Deficit Trajectory

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Financial Literacy Project

3 min read • Updated June 2026

Understanding the bill's long-term fiscal impact requires looking beyond the 10-year budget window that Congress uses for scoring. Structural changes compound over time in ways the conventional budget score does not capture.

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Beyond the 10-Year Window

The JCT's 10-year score shows a $180 billion deficit reduction. But several provisions — the inflation-indexed Social Security thresholds and the expanded child tax credit — grow significantly in cost beyond the window.

Core Takeaway

Long-term debt sustainability is a legitimate concern. Investors in Treasury securities should monitor debt ceiling negotiations and the Treasury's long-end issuance strategy over the next decade.